建立一个强有力的现金流预测

A strong cash flow forecast that accurately predicts cash position over the desired period is mission-critical for nearly every business. 构建一个 strong cash flow forecast model up to a few weeks or months can be straightforward 有可用的数据和一些未知的. 然而, longer-term cash flow forecasts–needed for business sustainability and strategic planning–are more complex. Relying on an oversimplified forecast that does not adequately consider all the factors impacting cash balance can be perilous. A disciplined process you can iterate and refine over time will help ensure your forecast is timely, 预测, 和可靠的.

现金流量预测的重要性

Establishing an effective cash flow forecasting process is more than a matter of good financial hygiene. 现金流量预测是明智决策的必要条件, 重点关注业务关键问题，例如:

• 手头是否有足够的现金来支付当前的债务? 要多久?? 是否应该启动行动计划来保存现金?
• Whether outside financing will be required to support strategic initiatives or maintain liquidity. 时机尤其重要, since activities such as raising capital or incurring new debt require substantial lead times.
• 是否预期有现金盈余，持续多长时间? 认识到这一点可以推动做出潜在的减少债务的决定, 进行临时或战略性投资, 支付股息, 等.

An effective cash flow forecast that is highly 预测 can frame these compelling issues and help frame solution parameters. 不幸的是, 大多数现金流预测都过于简化了现实, 它变成了一种徒劳的练习.

现金流预测在哪里失效

现金流量预测是出了名的不准确，而且往往价值有限. 不完整的数据和有缺陷的假设削弱了预测的可预测性. Not only can it be challenging to pull together all the information needed to prepare the cash flow, 但也要对预测中的不确定性做出合理的判断. 

在你的预测中需要考虑的一些不确定性:

•  现金交易时间
• 需求的季节性波动
• 客户行为——包括逾期付款和无法收回的债务

• 供应商驱动的激励，定价，发货时间
• 市场趋势和商业周期

库存采购可能对预测构成重大挑战, 尤其是在全球供应链方面, 采购交货期通常是几个月, 信用证可能已经准备好了. Smaller companies–those without established credit–may have to put down a deposit or pay in full in advance of production runs. There may also be opportunities for special buys or terms with a particular supplier factoring into the purchasing decision.

产品组合的变化也会对收入产生深远的影响, 产品成本, 现金流, 即使价格没有变化. 在更长的时期内, 过于简化的混合假设会显著影响现金流, 受到上述许多因素的驱动. A cautionary note: using gross margin as an input to cash flow in the short-term will almost always distort forecasted cash position, 因为这是在装运时决定的, 哪些通常与现金支付和现金收入不一致.

制定现金流量预测有一些不总是显而易见的细微差别. 在某些情况下, 单个或几个大客户或大采购可能是异常值, 使更广泛的假设失效并影响预测的质量. 这些复杂性对大多数企业来说都是常见的，即使是最小的企业. 未经适当考虑, the forecast model may lose 预测ness and lead to decisions (or non-decisions) that otherwise would not have been made.

为高质量的现金流量预测创建一个有纪律的流程

第一步:确定你的预测周期

确定最合适的预测范围主要取决于风险和需求. 紧张的现金状况需要不断监测和优先排序, 呼吁关注短期利益, 通常不超过13周, 根据需要进行更新以保持预测的准确性. In cases of extreme financial distress, a day-to-day forecast may be necessary to 管理 cash. 积极的一面是，在更短的时间内，信息更确定，更容易获得.

Medium- to longer-term forecast periods are important for maintaining operating liquidity and strategic planning. 长期预测有助于向投资者和贷款人证明经济的可行性, 并在退出的时候考虑到企业估值.

It is common to keep a long-term cash flow forecast, updating the short-term portion more frequently. Building these into the same model, changes in the short-term portion will flow through the model.

第二步:了解你的信息来源

有效的预测需要整个组织的信息, 并开发一个有效的过程来积累这些投入:

• 建立数据驱动流程:
  • 利用当前和历史交易数据来了解现金流.
  • 专注于有用的见解、趋势和模式，而不是追求精确.
  • 会计ERP可以简化流程并减少错误.
• 跨组织协作:
• Employees with spending authority and/or responsibility for revenue generation can corroborate the forecast or identify significant items or trends.
• 不寻常的和一次性的物品:
  • 预估非经常性费用或意外事件.
  • 核实基本建设计划中的支出是否已包括在内.
  • 考虑那些可能不经常支付或收取的项目, 比如偿债支付, 法律费用, 估计税款/退税, 其他收入.

• 回顾以前的预测:
  • 跟踪实际现金流量，并与预测值保持一致.
  • 分析实际和预测之间的差异. 是由于意外开支、收入变化还是其他因素造成的?
  • 根据你的分析调整当前的预测.

Cash flow forecasting is both an art and science, and useful information may come from other sources. While it is desirable to have a forecast that considers the entirety of future inflows and outflows of cash, 目标是在物质上足够准确，以支持明智的决策.

第三步:考虑外部因素

Elements outside an organization’s direct control–including market trends and economic conditions–may have a material impact on the cash flow forecast. Even technological advancements and social influences can affect the cash flow projections over longer periods. 这些通常作为场景调整来处理, or called out as risks or opportunities if they are too uncertain to build into to forecast.

步骤4:记录假设

在每次预测更新中记录关键假设. 假设描述了在预测中如何考虑(或不考虑)不确定性. This is an important tool for decision-makers to help identify potential risks within the forecast, 以及用于改进预测的未来迭代. These include financial risks or opportunities that might transpire but are not likely enough to warrant factoring into the forecast model.

步骤5:评估和细化流程

建立定期更新预测的节奏, 考虑财务风险和预测发生重大变化的频率. Evaluate variances from the forecast to actual results–how well did the prior forecast work? 缺少了什么?? 哪些假设是有缺陷的? 这种方法可以很好地持续改进和完善现金流模型.

建立一个强预测模型

A cash flow forecast developed outside the organization’s approved financial forecast leads to a misalignment between the two forecasts, 可能意味着其中一个是不完整的. 取决于你的流程的严格程度, it may be advisable to prepare both and identify variances–as a measure to improve the forecasting process–but the cash flow should always be part of the regular forecasting process, 包括资产负债表的最佳做法.

编制整合损益表的三表模型, 资产负债表, 现金流 gives you a more complete picture of your business and helps drive strategy (a well-built model allows for ease of iterations as strategy and forecast are aligned). 最终, 这提供了一个更有效的预测, 通过一致的过程定期更新. This is also necessary for long-term projections–inevitable for most businesses–to support strategic planning for growth, 退出估价, 等.

它不必是令人畏惧的

Advanced accounting ERP platforms and integrated point solutions provide three-statement forecast reporting. Some of these systems use historical and real-time data to predict future trends as a baseline forecast, 然而, 对于非经常性项目或估算，它们仍然需要人工输入, 当然还有人类审查. 人工智能无疑将在未来扮演重要角色. 但对于许多企业来说，访问复杂的系统可能仍然遥不可及. 

经验丰富的指导 分式控制器 can help you establish an effective cash flow forecasting model–even if you are using a sophisticated platform currently–as well as a process for regular updates and refinement of the model. 他们可以带你做一些有价值的练习，比如:

• 情景规划——从最可能的角度考虑风险和机会, 最好的, 最坏的情况.
• 敏感性分析——例如, 应收账款账龄的变化对你的收款有何影响?
• 叠加历史趋势, 尤其是季节性影响, 看看它们会如何影响你未来筹集资金或付款的能力.

A strong cash flow model–developed and updated through a disciplined process–is essential for accuracy and consistency. Your cash flow forecast becomes a valuable tool you can rely upon with confidence to evaluate, 管理, 发展你的业务.